Full Charge
$100 oil, zero subsidies, and the companies that didn't get the memo about slowing down"
Good Morning,
When we published “The New Paradigm” last July, we argued that China’s electric vehicle industry had crossed from speculation to sustainable profitability. Eight months later, the thesis has held up, the separation between winners and losers has accelerated, and the external environment has shifted in a way we did not anticipate: Brent crude above $112, the Strait of Hormuz partially shut, and energy security back at the top of every government’s agenda.
The EV story we want to tell today is about what happens when the subsidy sugar rush ends and the organic run rate becomes visible for the first time. Some companies are thriving in that new reality. Others are stumbling badly. The technology stack continues to evolve in ways that consolidate Chinese dominance. And the global export story is quietly becoming one of the most important capital allocation narratives in the market.
We have a lot to cover. Let us get into it.
IMPORTANT NOTE: We are presently in the process of getting a license with a major regulator, and while that process is ongoing we are not able to publish the portfolio update and company notes. We’ll do a big reveal of the new plans as soon as we’re in a position to do thusly. We apologise for it taking time, but this is unfortunately a fact of life. With that we’re also putting the opinion part of this behind the wall.
NOTE: Panda+ is now closed to new joiners. We thank everyone for their interest and custom.
Nothing in this Substack is Investment Advice. This information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Any examples used are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect actual recommendations. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The authors, publishers, and affiliates of this content do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of the information and are not responsible for any losses, damages, or actions taken based on this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Oil Shock: What $100 Crude Actually Does to the EV Equation
Brent has moved from the mid-$60s at the start of 2026 to above $112 as of this writing, roughly 70% in under three months. WTI breached $100 on March 27. At the peak of the Strait of Hormuz disruption in mid-March, Brent briefly hit $126. Tanker traffic through the strait dropped approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the chokepoint. The daily flow of 20.7 million barrels, a fifth of global oil supply and over a quarter of seaborne oil trade, was severely disrupted.
The broader macro framing is negative: oil up, economy down, risk off. Hong Kong energy stocks gained 9.4% in the two weeks following the disruption while materials dropped 6.2% and financials fell 1%.
But for EVs specifically, high oil prices do two things simultaneously. They widen the total cost of ownership advantage that electric vehicles already hold over internal combustion. And they accelerate policy urgency around energy security.
